RESEARCH DISCIPLINE
Political Science Research Project Statistics
Opinion Data Across Countries
Survey experiment analysis and the modeling of attitude and vote-choice data across respondents, waves and countries: don't know answers coded by a stated rule, ordered scales modeled as ordered, country-level evidence read with the number of countries in view.
No Commitment Required
Strictly Confidential
In-House PhD-Level Statisticians
Fixed Project Fee
Same-Day Response
What Does Analyzing Opinion Data Across Countries Involve?
Political science research project statistics covers the analysis of what citizens think and do, drawn from surveys of public opinion in one country or compared across many. Opinion surveys turn on the items: answers are ordered categories, many respondents say they do not know, and the same question can carry a different meaning in another language or political setting. Data compared across countries add a second level, because country characteristics are used to explain differences among respondents while only a small number of countries is observed. Survey experiments randomize something inside the questionnaire, such as the wording of a question, whether a sensitive item is added to a list answered only with a count, or the features of a vignette, and the quantity of interest is estimated by comparing the randomly assigned groups. At OnlineSPSS, a specialist statistical consultancy for academic, clinical and professional research, in-house PhD-level statisticians analyze these data. Your theory decides which comparisons matter; the models estimate them with their uncertainty.
WHEN TO ENGAGE
Points in a Political Survey Project
Whether the data cover one country, many countries or several waves decides what kind of statistical input a survey project needs at each point.
Choosing the Survey Items An instrument is being designed, or an existing survey selected, and the wording, the response scales and the "don't know" options will decide what can later be estimated.
One Wave, Many Attitudes A single wave is in hand, and attitude scales, vote choice and demographic predictors must be modeled in a way that matches the form of each outcome.
Countries in the Comparison Respondents come from several countries, and the question is whether differences reflect country characteristics when only a modest number of countries is available.
Same People, Several Waves A panel follows the same respondents, and the claim concerns change within persons, which a comparison of different people at each wave cannot support.
SURVEY MODELS
Opinion, Vote Choice and Country-Level Questions
The form of the outcome and the level of the predictor decide which model is appropriate, and the cards follow those two choices.
Answers Coded as Data
Don't know, refusal and midpoint answers are coded by a rule suited to each question, and the share affected is reported, so that no category is silently treated as an opinion.
Ordered Scales and Experiments
Ordered scales are modeled as ordered categories and shown as the probability of each response, and the effect of a randomized survey treatment is estimated as the difference between the randomly assigned groups.
Vote Choice and Turnout
Whether a respondent votes, or chooses one candidate over another, is modeled with Logistic Regression and reported as predicted probabilities with intervals.
Country-Level Predictors
A national characteristic explains differences among respondents, but the evidence for it rests on the number of countries, so its estimate and interval are read with that number in view.
Change Within Persons
Repeated waves of the same respondents are analyzed with Panel Data Analysis (Fixed & Random Effects), separating change within a person from differences between people.
Reporting for Political Science
Tables and wording follow the journals of Political Science, a discipline that belongs to Education & Social Sciences.
COMMON ISSUES
False Equivalence in Opinion Comparisons
Comparisons across people and countries fail quietly, because the numbers look comparable while the items, the groups or the time points are not.
Don't Know Dropped Respondents who answer "don't know" are removed before analysis, though they are not a random subset, so the remaining sample may differ systematically from the one surveyed.
Translation Treated as Neutral One question wording is assumed to carry the same meaning in every language, so a gap between countries may reflect the item and not the attitude itself.
Question Order Changed An attitude item asked after related questions can draw different answers, so a change in question order between waves or countries is checked before a difference is read as a change in opinion.
Countries as Respondents A country-level effect is tested as though every respondent were an independent observation, which can make a handful of countries look like thousands of data points.
Change Between Different Samples Two surveys with different respondents are read as change in individuals, when only a shift in the population's distribution of answers can be estimated.
Reported Turnout Taken at Face Value Self-reported turnout is treated as measured behavior, though surveys commonly overstate it, partly through social desirability and partly because people who vote are more willing to take part.
DELIVERABLES
Items, Models and Tables for Opinion Studies
From the coding of unusual answers to the table of predicted probabilities, each file shows how a published figure follows from the survey responses.
Item Coding Sheet The coding rule for each don't know, refusal and midpoint answer, with the share of respondents affected for every item.
Harmonized Variable List Variable names, wording and response scales across countries or waves, with the recodes that put them on a common footing.
Probability and Effect Tables Probabilities of each response or vote choice at stated values of the predictors, and survey experiment effects, with 95% confidence intervals.
Country Influence Check How each country-level estimate moves when every country is left out in turn, so a result resting on one or two cases is visible.
Within-Person Change Summary For panel data, the estimated change within respondents, the attrition across waves and what the retained sample can represent.
Survey Merge and Model Script One script that merges the downloaded survey files, applies every recode and fits each model, keeping the original variable names alongside the new ones.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Institutional Trust and Turnout Across Waves
An illustration of how a three-wave panel is analyzed when don't know answers cluster in one age group and fieldwork overlaps a political event.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE · ELECTORAL TURNOUT PANEL RESEARCH · UNITED STATES
A doctoral researcher in political science wanted to know whether trust in institutions was associated with intending to vote, using a three-wave panel survey of adults in one state.
The coding of the trust items came first. Don’t know answers were concentrated among younger respondents, so they were kept as a separate category and their share was reported, not dropped. The second complication was timing: part of the second wave was interviewed after a widely reported dispute over the count in a local election, so the interview date entered the model and the estimates were compared with and without the later interviews. The model used each person’s own earlier answers to separate change within a person from differences between people, and results were given as predicted probabilities of intending to vote. The findings were worded as associations in an observational panel.
Outcome: The researcher received the item coding sheet, predicted probabilities with 95% confidence intervals, the comparison by interview date, the within-person change summary and the script behind every table.
This example does not describe a real client or project. We never share details of actual client work, in line with the confidentiality we promise every researcher. This illustrative example is included to show the type, scope, and standard of work involved in this kind of analysis.
SOFTWARE
Software for Survey and Panel Files
Survey files are analyzed in the program that fits the data source and the expectations of your department or journal, working from the files you download or hold.
HOW WE ASSESS YOUR PROJECT
We Review Your Actual Research
Your assessment is based on a review of your actual research materials and analytical requirements, not a generic project category.
You Submit Your Project Details
Share whatever is available at the current stage, such as the research aim, protocol or proposal, dataset, variable list, manuscript or statistical requirements.
We Review Your Research and Define the Scope
Your statistically trained Research Coordinator reviews the materials to understand the study design, research questions, data structure, analytical requirements and expected deliverables. If clarification is needed, additional documents or information can be requested before the assessment is finalized.
Your Analysis Is Completed and Delivered
Once the scope and fixed project fee are agreed, the in-house statistician completes the work and the Research Coordinator remains the communication point through delivery, with the analysis, deliverables and timeline as agreed.
RESEARCH RESPONSIBILITY
Your Political Argument, Our Statistical Role
Which hypotheses are tested and how the estimates bear on political theory are your decisions, and the data preparation and models serve them.
Agreed Statistical Support OnlineSPSS provides the agreed methodological, analytical and statistical reporting support, defined in a scope that is confirmed before any work begins.
No Intellectual Contribution OnlineSPSS does not claim any intellectual contribution to your research. Authorship of the thesis, article or conference paper remains yours.
Your Research Decisions The theory, the hypotheses, the political interpretation of the estimates and the conclusions remain yours, with overall responsibility.
Confidential Handling Research data and project details are handled confidentially, project information is not published, and an NDA is available where required.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Questions Political Scientists Raise
Most of the work in an opinion study happens before any model is fitted: coding answers, aligning questions across countries and judging what self-reports can bear.
What does statistical support for a political science research project cover?
Survey experiment analysis and the analysis of opinion surveys cover the coding of unusual answers, models suited to ordered and binary outcomes, list experiment analysis with its assumptions stated, factorial survey experiments, country-level questions and panel data. Ordered and binary outcomes are reported on the probability scale, which readers outside statistics can follow.
Should "don't know" answers be treated as missing?
Not automatically. For a knowledge question a don’t know answer is informative in itself, and for an attitude question it may reflect real ambivalence or no opinion. The answer can be kept as its own category, modeled, or examined in a sensitivity analysis, and the share of respondents giving it is always reported.
How are survey items aligned when countries ask them differently?
Alignment starts from the questionnaires, not from the variable names. Items are matched on wording and response scale, recoded to a common format only where the categories can be aligned without inventing information, and documented item by item. Where formats differ too much, such as a four-point item in one country and an eleven-point item in another, results are reported separately or the country is flagged, because a shared label does not make two questions the same.
Can recalled vote from a past election be trusted?
With caution. Reports of a past vote tend to drift over time, often toward the winning party or toward the respondent’s present preference, so recalled vote is a weaker measure than a vote reported soon after the election. It can be used as a predictor with that limit stated, and where official results exist, the survey’s recalled shares can be compared with them as a check.
How do you protect my research data and confidentiality?
Your data and project details are handled confidentially, and project information is not published. Researcher names and institutions are not used publicly without permission. An NDA is available where required and can be arranged before sensitive materials are shared. Read more about confidentiality and data security.
What happens when I request an assessment, and how long does it take?
You share your research question, design and relevant materials, such as the survey codebook, the list of countries or waves and the dataset, and a statistically trained Research Coordinator reviews the request and responds the same day. The analysis, deliverables, timeline and one fixed project fee are then confirmed before any work begins, so the timeline follows from the agreed scope.
Still have a question? Find more answers in our full FAQ.
NEXT STEP
Opinion Data Across
Languages and Waves
Ordered answers, don't know replies and questions asked in several languages each limit what an opinion survey can show, and the models are built within those limits.
No Commitment Required
Strictly Confidential
Fixed Project Fee
In-House PhD-Level Statisticians
Same-Day Response
Serving Researchers Since 2014